Nomogram model can effectively predict the risk of postoperative intestinal fistula in patients with Crohn disease

A recent study demonstrated that a nomogram prediction model can effectively assess the independent factors affecting patients with postoperative intestinal fistula from Crohn disease (CD). This study was published in the journal, Medicine.

This was a retrospective multicenter case-control study that included 240 patients with CD, who were randomly divided into a training set (n=168) and a validation set (n=72). Univariate analysis was conducted for relevant factors and the statistically significant factors were further analyzed using multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent influencing factors. Subsequently, a nomogram model was developed to predict the occurrence of postoperative intestinal fistula in patients with CD, and the accuracy of this model was assessed using calibration curves.

Univariate analysis demonstrated that disease behavior, intestinal perforation, abdominal abscess, systemic immunoinflammatory index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and prognostic nutrition index were all factors affecting postoperative intestinal fistula in CD patients. After the multivariate logistic regression analysis, it was found that the independent influencing factors were the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, disease behavior, prognostic nutrition index, and Crohn disease activity index score. The area under the curve, after assessing the validation set was 0.899, indicating good predictive accuracy of the nomogram model.

Based on the above findings of the study, it can be concluded that the nomogram prediction model can effectively predict the risk of postoperative intestinal fistula in patients with CD.